Beef prices could remain high even as Trump removes some tariffs

By Brett Rowland
The Center Square

President Donald Trump removed 40% tariffs on Brazilian food products, including beef, but prices could remain elevated for years as the U.S. cattle industry rebuilds.

Trump’s decision on Brazil follows his change in tariff policies two weeks ago, both amid growing frustration over grocery store prices and other rising costs for Americans.

Beef and veal prices jumped 14.7% year-over-year in September. Uncooked ground beef increased 12.9%, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Marc Busch, an expert in international trade policy and law, said that any potential price cuts for consumers would be gradual. Busch is the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

“A bit of downward pressure on the prices of cuts exposed to imports, but logistical and other challenges, including distributors not sharing all the cost-savings with consumers, will slow relief,” he told The Center Square.

U.S. beef prices have increased by more than 50% since 2020, according to figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Between September 2020 and September 2025, the price per pound of ground beef increased by over $2.20.

Nate Rempe, the president and CEO of Omaha Steaks, told Fox Business this month that ground beef could reach $10 per pound before the end of 2026. He later told Nexstar that beef prices may not fall until late 2027.

“America is in for a bit of a long haul here,” Rempe said.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently noted that Americans consume about 12 million metric tons of beef. About 10 million comes from domestic producers, leaving a shortfall of about 2 million, she said.

Trump said he decided to modify the tariffs after a talk with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Trump put the Brazilian tariffs in place to punish the country for its prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of the U.S. president.

Throughout his second term, Trump has made tariffs a cudgel to push countries around the globe to make changes. However, his authority to use tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is at issue in a case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court.

Trump said Monday that Americans will soon see more benefits from tariffs because for months, U.S. businesses stocked up on imports ahead of the tariffs.

“Despite the massive amount of money being made by the United States of America, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, as a direct result of Tariffs being charged to other countries, the full benefit of the Tariffs has not yet been calculated in that many of the buyers of goods and products, in order to avoid paying the Tariffs in the short term, “STOCK UP” by purchasing far more inventory than they can use,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

Trump said U.S. tariff collections were set to soar.

“That heavy inventory purchase is now, however, wearing thin, and soon Tariffs will be paid on everything they apply to, without avoidance, and the amounts payable to the USA will SKYROCKET, over and above the already historic levels of dollars received,” he said. “These payments will be RECORD SETTING, and put our Nation on a new and unprecedented course.”

The Congressional Budget Office slashed its tariff revenue forecast to reflect new data last week, providing new projections that show tariff changes will reduce deficits by $3 trillion over the next decade. That’s down from the CBO’s earlier estimate of $4 trillion in August.

Trump’s Solicitor General, D. John Sauer, told the Supreme Court that the tariffs were regulatory in nature and not intended to raise revenue.

Trump said Monday that the Supreme Court must decide the case quickly.

“This Tariff POWER will bring America National Security and Wealth the likes of which has never been seen before,” Trump said. “I look so much forward to the United States Supreme Court’s decision on this urgent and time sensitive matter so that we can continue, in an uninterrupted manner to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Trump’s executive order on tariffs will affect Brazilian imports to the U.S. going back to Nov. 13 and could require the federal government to issue refunds for some of the tariffs previously collected.