Expert: GOP success this week doesn’t mean Nov. 3 victories

By Chris Woodward
The Center Square

Republicans appear to have done well in this week’s California primary, despite Democrats redrawing congressional districts in their favor.

But an expert observing Tuesday’s election say things may be a different story after the Nov. 3 general election. That is not only for congressional races but also for governor of California and mayor of Los Angeles.

Sacramento political consultant Matt Rexroad said he thinks Democrats are “certainly on track to pick up seats in California” this year.

“Redistricting plans are built for more than one election, and this election that’s coming up is incredibly favorable to Democrats in California, actually across the entire country,” Rexroad told The Center Square. “People might say, well, look how the Republicans did or look how the primary turned out in June in California, but it’s about winning in November, and that’s where you actually have seats for Congress.”

Historically, the party in power in the White House loses control of at least one chamber of Congress in a midterm election, and Republicans currently have a razor-thin majority in the House. That’s putting states like California and a state where redistricting is favoring Republicans, Texas, in the national spotlight.

In November, it will be a much more partisan election, Rexroad said. “We’re going to see Democrats pick up some seats in California, unfortunately.”

According to unofficial results on Friday, Republican Steve Hilton has a slight lead in the gubernatorial race with 27.2% of the vote, compared to Democrat Xavier Becerra’s 26%. Democrat Tom Steyer is close behind with 20.2%. Hilton is advancing to the Nov. 3 general election with Becerra so far destined to be his opponent. The question is whether Steyer will catch up.

In the race for mayor of Los Angeles, Democratic incumbent Karen Bass hangs on to a lead with 35.08% of the vote compared to Republican Spencer Pratt’s 29.35%. Democratic Los Angeles Councilmember Nithya Raman is in third with 23.42%. Bass is advancing to the general election, and Pratt appears to be her likely opponent on Nov. 3, but voters are waiting to see whether Raman catches up as more ballots are counted.

The numbers on the governor’s race come from a California Secretary of State’s Office website. The Los Angeles figures are from the Los Angeles County registrar-recorder/county clerk.

As The Center Square reported on Wednesday, several Republican incumbents maintained clear leads in congressional districts drawn to disadvantage them through the passage of Proposition 50. However, many Californians vote by mail, and ballots postmarked on or before Election Day have a few more days to arrive.

The Center Square asked whether numerous options for Democratic voters aided Republicans running for office in the primary.

“You can’t have an outright winner in California,” said Rexroad about the primary. “Even if you and I were running against each other in California and I got 99% of the vote, you got one, or even if you didn’t vote for yourself and you got zero, you still have the top two that go on to November, and that’s the election you have to win.”

Democrats during the primary had the disadvantage of having more candidates than Republicans, Rexroad said. The leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates ran for governor and divided up the pie eight ways, while one Republican, Steve Hilton, picked up more votes than any other candidate and faced only one other Republican candidate who was seeing some success in the polls, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

“But most likely those people who voted for other Democrat candidates who weren’t with the top vote getter in our election on Tuesday, they’re most likely to vote for the Democrat that’s going to be on the ballot in November,” said Rexroad. “So when you total up the total number of votes cast for a Democrat running for Congress and the total number voting for Republicans, under those circumstances, I think Democrats will do quite well.”

This includes the race for Congressional District 22.

Republican David Valadao has 44% of the vote as of Friday, but he’s the only Republican candidate in a primary that features two Democrats. Randy Villegas has 30.2% as of Friday. Jasmeet Bains has 25.8%.

“That’s a troubling sign because come November, whichever Democrat it is, ends up being the top vote-getter,” said Rexroad. “They’re probably going to get most of the votes that were cast for that other Democrat.”

But in his opinion, Rexroad said, the national media waited too long to call some races during the primary. This includes the Congressional District 20 race in Bakersfield.

According to Rexroad, the media could have announced two weeks ago that Vince Fong was going to win in the Republican stronghold.

“He was the only Republican on the ballot,” Rexroad said. “He was clearly going to win by a sizable amount, and he ended up getting about 70% of the vote. He’ll end up with about 65% or so (in the Nov. 3 election).”

Two Republican congressional incumbents ended up in California’s redrawn District 40, which could mean at least one fewer Republican in the U.S. House. But the District 40 race itself is on track to shutting Democrats out of the Nov. 3 general election because the top two vote getters, so far, are those two Republican incumbents.

Republican Ken Calvert has 35.9% of the vote as of Friday, compared to Republican Young Kim’s 21.3% of vote.

There are five Democrats in that contest with a combined 41.3% of the vote. Of that, 15.9% of that belongs to Esther Kim-Varet. Lisa Ramirez has 13.4%. The rest is split between Joe Kerr, Claude Keissieh and Francis Xavier Hoffman. The question is whether Kim-Varet will catch up during the next 35 days of ballot counting.

Nina Linh, who has “no party preference,” has 1.4%.

The Center Square reached out to the California Republican and Democratic parties, but did not hear back by press time.